X posts, matched to Polymarket markets

Patrick Flynn@patrickjfl·Oct 4

With 2% counted, Patrick’s model projects a first-round lead for Flávio Bolsonaro. A runoff is still expected. The final winner remains undecided.

Summary · View original

POLYMARKETJev 51%AnalysisHide

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YesOpinion2.58/4

Yes · 30m70.6%84.1%+13.5 pp

Open

What changed after the post?

Historical

Yes priceBefore 70.6%Vertical line: post timeGoldsky trades

Before70.6%

+30 min84.1%

+2 hours84.45%

+24 hours83.1%

Larger than usual volatility

The 30-minute price rose by 13.5 points. Across the prior 7-day baseline, 95% of absolute 30-minute changes were at or below 0.9 points.

This move

13.5

Usual limit

0.9

Percentage points · 336 non-overlapping 30-minute baseline windows

Observed prices stayed above the starting level

From +30 minutes to +24 hours, 1,410 observations ranged from 80.35% to 87.5%. All were above the pre-post price of 70.6%.

Longest sample gap: 81 seconds. This describes available observations only.

Jev model details jev-1.13.0

Direction confidence: 51%. Yes category weight: 63%.

Evidence-type confidence: 90%. Importance confidence: 41%. Importance does not predict a price move.

Jev used a verified post summary and market rules. No future prices or final result were included. This is a retrospective example. The outcome was unsettled when the post appeared.

Prices had already started rising, and vote counts continued to arrive. A runoff was still needed. Price changes near the post do not prove that this post caused them. First-publication time is unverified.

NASA Webb Telescope@NASAWebb·Oct 6

Webb’s view of the NGC 7129 stellar nursery reveals stars previously hidden from view, helping astronomers study the stellar lifecycle.

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Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos·Sep 29

Williams pushes back on an October rate hike: there is “no need for urgency.” Another hike may be appropriate later in the year.

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POLYMARKETJev 99%AnalysisHide

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

NoReport2.58/4

Yes · 30m67.5%47.5%-20 pp

Open

What changed after the post?

Historical

Yes priceBefore 67.5%Vertical line: post timeGoldsky trades

Before67.5%

+30 min47.5%

+2 hours47.5%

+24 hours36.5%

Larger than usual volatility

The 30-minute price fell by 20 points. Across the prior 7-day baseline, 95% of absolute 30-minute changes were at or below 2 points.

This move

20

Usual limit

2

Percentage points · 335 non-overlapping 30-minute baseline windows

Observed prices stayed below the starting level

From +30 minutes to +24 hours, 1,410 observations ranged from 29.5% to 48.5%. All were below the pre-post price of 67.5%.

Longest sample gap: 128 seconds. This describes available observations only.

Jev model details jev-1.13.0

Direction confidence: 99%. No category weight: 99%.

Evidence-type confidence: 99%. Importance confidence: 44%. Importance does not predict a price move.

Jev used a verified post summary and market rules. No future prices or final result were included. This is a retrospective example. The outcome was unsettled when the post appeared.

Later PCE news also affected the 24-hour result. Price changes near the post do not prove that this post caused them. First-publication time is unverified.

Buitengebieden@buitengebieden·Oct 4

Blue-footed boobies.. 😊

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IPO Newsroom@IPONewsroom_·Sep 11

Nvidia is in talks to become an anchor investor in Anthropic’s IPO, with a potential investment of up to $10 billion. Plans remain under discussion.

Summary · View original

POLYMARKETJev 39%AnalysisHide

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

YesReport2.38/4

Yes · 30m58%65%+7 pp

Open

What changed after the post?

Historical

Yes priceBefore 58%Vertical line: post timeGoldsky trades

Before58%

+30 min65%

+2 hours68%

+24 hours63.5%

Larger than usual volatility

The 30-minute price rose by 7 points. Across the prior 7-day baseline, 95% of absolute 30-minute changes were at or below 2 points.

This move

7

Usual limit

2

Percentage points · 333 non-overlapping 30-minute baseline windows

Observed prices stayed above the starting level

From +30 minutes to +24 hours, 1,410 observations ranged from 58.5% to 69.5%. All were above the pre-post price of 58%.

Longest sample gap: 92 seconds. This describes available observations only.

Jev model details jev-1.13.0

Direction confidence: 39%. Yes category weight: 54%.

Evidence-type confidence: 74%. Importance confidence: 30%. Importance does not predict a price move.

Jev used a verified post summary and market rules. No future prices or final result were included. This is a retrospective example. The outcome was unsettled when the post appeared.

Investment talks were ongoing. The IPO had not happened. Price changes near the post do not prove that this post caused them. First-publication time is unverified.

Federal Reserve@federalreserve·Oct 6

Be wary of unexpected emails claiming to be from the Federal Reserve. Scammers use fake fraud alerts to steal financial information.

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DB News@DBNewswire·Jul 16, 2025

Trump says he is not planning to take action against Powell, according to Reuters. That denies an immediate plan, but leaves the year-end outcome open.

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POLYMARKETHistoricalJev 45%AnalysisHide

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

NoReport2.23/4

Yes · 30m30.5%17.5%-13 pp

Open

What changed after the post?

Historical

Yes priceBefore 30.5%Vertical line: post timeGoldsky trades

Before30.5%

+30 min17.5%

+2 hours22%

+24 hours20.5%

Larger than usual volatility

The 30-minute price fell by 13 points. Across the prior 7-day baseline, 95% of absolute 30-minute changes were at or below 1.5 points.

This move

13

Usual limit

1.5

Percentage points · 336 non-overlapping 30-minute baseline windows

Observed prices stayed below the starting level

From +30 minutes to +24 hours, 1,408 observations ranged from 17.5% to 23.5%. All were below the pre-post price of 30.5%.

Longest sample gap: 225 seconds. This describes available observations only.

Jev model details jev-1.13.0

Direction confidence: 45%. No category weight: 59%.

Evidence-type confidence: 95%. Importance confidence: 13%. Importance does not predict a price move.

Jev used post content and market rules. No future prices or final result were included. This is a retrospective example. The outcome was unsettled when the post appeared.

The statement denied an immediate plan. It did not settle the year-end outcome. Price changes near the post do not prove that this post caused them. First-publication time is unverified.

National Gallery@NationalGallery·Oct 6

General tickets for the National Gallery’s upcoming Van Eyck exhibition will go on sale in the coming weeks. Email subscribers will hear when booking opens.

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Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas·May 20, 2024

Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised their estimate for spot Ether ETF approval from 25% to 75%, citing signs of a possible SEC shift. Further confirmation was still needed.

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POLYMARKETHistoricalJev 84%AnalysisHide

Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?

YesOpinion3.07/4

Yes · 30m16.5%49.5%+33 pp

Open

What changed after the post?

Historical

Yes priceBefore 16.5%Vertical line: post timeGoldsky trades

Before16.5%

+30 min49.5%

+2 hours69%

+24 hours75.5%

Larger than usual volatility

The 30-minute price rose by 33 points. Across the prior 7-day baseline, 95% of absolute 30-minute changes were at or below 2 points.

This move

33

Usual limit

2

Percentage points · 336 non-overlapping 30-minute baseline windows

Observed prices stayed above the starting level

From +30 minutes to +24 hours, 1,410 observations ranged from 40.5% to 76.5%. All were above the pre-post price of 16.5%.

Longest sample gap: 68 seconds. This describes available observations only.

Jev model details jev-1.13.0

Direction confidence: 84%. Yes category weight: 88%.

Evidence-type confidence: 97%. Importance confidence: 22%. Importance does not predict a price move.

Jev used post content and market rules. No future prices or final result were included. This is a retrospective example. The outcome was unsettled when the post appeared.

A brief price jump occurred before the post. More ETF news followed. Price changes near the post do not prove that this post caused them. First-publication time is unverified.

National Gallery@NationalGallery·Oct 3

“Renoir and Love” is now open at the National Gallery, exploring the artist’s depictions of dancing couples, lovers, families and friends.

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